There is a lot of discussion these days about replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy. To try and understand the size of what is being attempted with this initiative, I have enclosed a chart of world energy consumption since 1820.

A few points are worth noting from this chart. Energy consumption continues to increase at an exponential rate. It has never decreased. Use of each type of energy continues to increase over time. No energy type has ever decreased. Even biofuels in their various historical forms have continued to increase over time. We have added different types of energy sources overtime, but we have never eliminated or even reduced any of these energy sources.

This ongoing growth in energy consumption is not surprising. The world has experienced continual and exponential population growth, which requires increased energy to support the growth. Over the past fifty years energy consumption has actually grown at a rate slightly more that population growth.

The World Economic Forum is promoting the elimination of fossil fuels as a legitimate energy source. It says the world should transition to renewables. As many will be aware, renewable energy sources include solar, wind, hydro, tidal, geothermal, and biomass energy.

Pleasingly, the world continues to innovate, discovering and inventing new ways of producing and sourcing energy. At the time of writing, the use of renewable energy is greatly increasing. The use of fossil fuels is not decreasing and is indeed increasing.

Whilst many countries have signed agreements under which they agree to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, there is increasing evidence that this is unachievable. In several European countries, these anti-fossil fuel policies have been reversed in their first year of operation. Not a great start! Yes, the reduction in the supply of energy from Russia was a major contributor to the energy shortfall, but this has also highlighted that Europe is unlikely to put themselves in a position of being so reliant on Russian energy in the future.

For example, Germany had previously turned off twenty coal-fired power stations. They were unable to move to renewables as there simply wasn’t the quantum of renewable energy available to supply the country. Additionally, the supply of wind power in Germany has been materially declining since 2019, which is in part due to the lack and variability of the wind.

France has also changed its mind about renewables and has decided to build fourteen new nuclear reactors by 2050. This contrasts with their 2018 commitment to close twelve nuclear reactors and move to renewables.

In June 2023, Sweden announced that they were not proceeding with their commitment to 100 per cent renewable energy supply. Additionally. the Swedish finance minister advised their parliament that wind and solar power are “too unstable” to meet the country’s energy requirements. Sweden has now reversed its policy to phase out nuclear power and has decided to build more nuclear reactors. The Swedish government expects demand for electricity to double by 2040.

Significant research has been completed on the amount of infrastructure that is required to transport and store renewable energy from its source to where it is consumed. The amount of infrastructure required for this is nearly beyond comprehension and appears totally unachievable in any scenario. One study concluded that the energy to construct the infrastructure for a wind farm, which typically has an economic life of approximately twenty years, is greater than the amount of energy that the wind farm will produce over its lifetime.

Once again, I stress that very few people are opposed to renewables. Most people would agree that renewables are a welcome addition to the existing energy supply. Equally, there is increasing support for the view that renewables are highly unlikely to be able to replace the amount of energy that is currently supplied by fossil fuels.

Time will tell on this debate.

I discuss this and many other interesting topics in my recently released book called “What’s Really Going On?”  If you wish to source a copy of “What’s Really Going On?” to understand why this is so important please click here to purchase book.